The nightmare that's been dubbed "The Big One" has been scheduled to rock Greater Victoria a handful of times this past decade.

Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't, experts warn, hence the plethora of emergency preparedness programs in the area.

What if it were to hit? How would a major earthquake affect Saanich and its 115,000 residents?

The experts can't agree.

"Panic is a myth," says Brock Henson, emergency program officer for Saanich. "People tend to be rather altruistic in nature according to research. They're good-natured and eager to help."

Deputy police chief Mike Chadwick, on the other hand, called panic a possibility.

"There will be those that, for a variety of reasons, will resort to stealing things, be it food to feed their families or big-screen TVs because no one's around.

"It's going to be chaos. There's high emotion running in the first couple of days."

If recent history is any indicator, it's the latter that might be more likely should The Big One strike.

"Panicked residents fled into the streets as a quake rattled Qingchuan Country in southwest Sichuan," the Associated Press reported on Aug. 6 after a strong aftershock rattled China.

Whether people stay at home and calmly gather enough provisions to last seven days – as emergency preparedness staff hope they will – or run into the streets in a chaotic mass, Saanich's police, fire and public works departments will need to maintain their composure to keep the municipality safe and in working order.

"If it's a mammoth earthquake there's going to be a fair amount of damage to the sewer and water lines and power lines," said deputy fire chief and Saanich's emergency co-ordinator Frank Macdonald. "We need to emphasize to the public that, following something like a substancial earthquake, the municipality's ability to respond as people expect."

Communication is key to co-ordinating the services that will respond in the event of a quake. Saanich's seismically upgraded communications centre, located next to the fire and police departments, is equipped to handle a disaster.

In the immediate hours following The Big One, the police department will send out 4-by-4 vehicles, needed in case roads crumble and snap, Chadwick explained. The vehicles will set up police outposts at the hardest-hit areas to rescue people who might be trapped in rubble or stranded outdoors.

Paramedics and fire and police crews will carry automated external defibrillators to help anyone that might suffer from a heart attack from the quake. Disease is a possibility if the sewer system fails.

Eventually military crews and foreign aid could make a presence to help ease the effects of the quake, but that could take days.

"It takes time for those outside resources to get organized and be deployed in an efficient manner," Macdonald said. "You can't just have a bunch of people parachute in."

The effects of The Big One will be the worst in the first three to five days, Chadwick predicted, but will last much longer.

"You're definitely into it for the long haul," he said. "Earthquakes don't melt like the blizzard (of 1996) did."

Amid the possible panic, heartwarming stories will emerge as well, Henson said. Just as many people banded together in the wake of hurricane Katrina, the same could happen after Victoria's Big One.

"There's lots of co-operation, sense of duty and even heroism," he said.

ecardone@saanichnews.com

Did you know?

The idea that a doorway is the safest place to be in an earthquake isn't true, said deputy fire chief and emergency co-ordinator Frank Macdonald.

"Drop, cover and hold is the addage," he said. "Get low to the ground, get under a sturdy object such as a big dinner table."

The biggest risk for injury in a Vancouver Island earthquake is from falling debris, not collapsing structures, Macdonald said. If you don't have something to hide under, seek shelter against a wall with no windows, to avoid broken glass.

"Don't seek shelter in a doorway," Macdonald said. "A lot of people used to promote it as a safe area, but the big issue is in a doorway, there's a door. They rock back forth and they swing."

The District of Saanich operates emergency preparedness programs to get families ready to sustain themselves in case The Big One should hit. For more information, call 250-475-7140.