This fall’s federal election, likely to be called for Oct. 14, will lead to some changes as to who represents Surrey and Delta in Ottawa.

Surrey-North will have a new MP, as the NDP’s Penny Priddy is retiring after one term in Ottawa.

Her departure leaves a big hole for her party. The NDP tend to win seats in Ottawa when they have candidates who are well-known in their communities. Those MPs usually have a personal following that is more widespread than Liberal or Conservative MPs, and for good reason — when you elect an NDP MP, you know they will be sitting on the Opposition benches.

The best example of that phenomenon in Surrey was longtime MP Barry Mather, who was well-known as a newspaper columnist before first being elected in 1962. He served 12 years and won four elections, and was never seriously challenged.

The NDP in Surrey-North does not have anyone with the stature of Priddy to contest the seat. Thus they won’t have an easy time of it, considering the Conservative candidate is Dona Cadman, widow of the late and much-revered Conservative-turned-indepenent MP Chuck Cadman.

Surrey-North will likely be a hard-fought riding in the election. The same applies to Newton-North Delta. That seat, which is part of the former Surrey-Central riding, has been closely contested in each election since Surrey-Central was formed in time for the 1997 election.

Gurmant Grewal won it in 1997 for Reform, and won again in 2000 and 2004 (as a Conservatives in the latter election, in Newton-North Delta). All three wins were by close margins, with the Liberals and NDP coming close each time.

Grewal did not run in 2006 due to an Ottawa scandal, the whole story of which has never come out. Phil Eidsvik ran for the Conservatives but lost in a close race to Sukh Dhaliwal of the Liberals.

In this election, Dhaliwal will face off against Sandeep Pandher of the Conservatives and Teresa Townsley of the NDP.

The Fleetwood-Port Kells riding was the other half of Surrey-Central, and was first contested in 2004. Nina Grewal, Gurmant’s wife, won the seat that year and again in 2006. She is likely to win it again, although the changing demographics of the riding may make it a closer contest.

South Surrey-White Rock should be an easy win for Conservative Russ Hiebert, and yet another loss for Judy Higginbotham of the Liberals. She will have to decide at some point in the federal campaign if she will run for re-election to Surrey council, which she’ll have to do as an independent this year, given the demise of Surrey Electors Team.

In Delta-Richmond East, longtime MP John Cummins remains very popular with constituents.

Overall in B.C., the Tories may pick up a couple of seats. The Conservative brand is a little stronger, now that the party has formed government and Prime Minister Stephen Harper has a track record. Nonetheless, the NDP will likely do reasonably well, and the Liberals will likely hold most of the seats they now have.

In the end, the election will be decided in Ontario and Quebec, and B.C. voters, as usual, will be observers on the sidelines.