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Predictions of weather, or not
Re: Another year of enviro-wars begins, Jan. 7 column.
I share columnist Tom Fletcher’s wry amusement at the irony of the two ships trapped in Antarctic ice for weeks. The first Russian ship was carrying “warmist” media folk intent on reporting loss of sea ice caused by anthropogenic global warming. The Chinese would-be-rescuer icebreaker also became trapped in the sea ice.
Similar embarrassment is evident in forecasts for last year’s hurricane season: June 1 to Nov. 30.
Eight different organizations and universities predicted a season far more severe than average. All 13 forecasts – some were updated in August – were massively similar.
If there was ever an illustration of Al Gore’s infamous saying: “We have a consensus!” this was it.
The forecasters included the US Hurricane Center, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, and the UK Met Office.
Average predictions and actual occurrences were as follows:
Total hurricanes – all five categories – predicted: 8. Actual: 2
Total major hurricanes – Categories 3-5 – predicted: 4. Actual: zero.
Of the two hurricanes that did occur, one formed in the far Atlantic, barely achieved the Category 1 criterion of 75 m.p.h. and then petered out over a few days. The other hurricane formed in the Gulf of Mexico, lasted just days at hurricane strength and then went ashore in Mexico as a tropical storm.
As one sceptic remarked: “These are the same folks who are predicting temperatures 50 years in the future!”
David Poole, Surrey