Signs H1N1 wave is cresting as flu kills eight more
The H1N1 virus.
Updated: November 12, 2009 10:44 AM
Eight more B.C. residents have died of H1N1 flu in the past week, all of them with underlying health conditions.
Two of the latest deaths are in Fraser Health (one adult man and one adult woman), three are in the Vancouver Coastal region and three more are on Vancouver Island.
The victims range in age from eight years old to 80, according to provincial health officer Dr. Perry Kendall.
It brings to 23 the total number of swine flu deaths so far in B.C. and 601 people hospitalized – a 50 per cent jump in hospitalizations in the last week.
But Kendall said there are signs the current wave of the H1N1 pandemic is starting to level off, although it's too early to declare a peak.
"I do expect there will be more people hospitalized and I do expect there will be more deaths," he said.
Kendall noted intensive care units in Vancouver Coastal are slightly less busy than they were.
Also, the number of people in ICUs on ventilators across the province has eased to 38 as of Monday, down from a high of 46 a week earlier.
Slightly less antiviral medication was dispensed over the weekend.
"While all of these indicators show a possible leveling off, it's really too early to say with confidence we've reached the peak of the second wave," he said.
Even if the peak is now arriving, Kendall said some projections suggest the current rate of infection could continue for two to three weeks before subsiding.
Other scenarios point to a sharp peak and rapid drop in infection.
"There's still exposure on the downside of the wave that people need to be protecting themselves against," Kendall said.
He rejects suggestions there's little point to being vaccinated if the outbreak is starting to wane.
Kendall notes there could be a third wave of H1N1 in the spring or next fall.
"If we vaccinate enough people, we won't have a third wave," he said. "If people lose interest, then we may well have a third wave."
Kendall is sticking to his estimate that perhaps 50 people will ultimately die of H1N1 in B.C. – far fewer than the 200 to 800 a year from seasonal flu – but he notes much younger people are getting sick and dying from H1N1.
The median age of B.C. residents hospitalized due to H1N1 has been 33, while the median age of those who have died is 46 years,
Asthma, lung disease, diabetes and suppressed immune systems are the main risk factors among those who have been hospitalized so far.
Provincial officials don't yet have any firm date for when the vaccine will be opened up to healthy members of the general public, although they continue to hope that will happen by late November, with everyone getting the vaccine who wants it by Christmas.
The rollout of the vaccine has been delayed significantly by production problems.
Some Lower Mainland clinics that opened this week to provide vaccinations to high-priority groups are expected to close as the current vaccine supply runs out.
B.C. expects to get another 250,000 doses later this week and to have them ready for a fresh round of clinics by the beginning of next week.
More than 20 per cent of B.C.'s population has been vaccinated against H1N1 so far.






