With snow dusting the streets in town and blanketing the mountains surrounding Revelstoke, one might be bracing for a rough winter. However, according to a meteorologist with Environment Canada, we will likely, in fact, see temperatures above normal.

This is thanks to a Pacific Ocean weather system known as El Nino, caused by a warming of the surface water of the ocean around the Equator.

“It tends to make western Canada warmer than normal throughout the winter,” said Doug Lundquist, who monitors weather throughout the B.C. interior and the Yukon.

Contradicting Lundquist, is the Weather Office’s website, which is forecasting a 50 per cent chance of colder than normal temperatures for the month of December, January and February; a 30 per cent chance of near normal temperatures; and only a 20 per cent chance of above normal temperatures.

Lunquist believes the weather will skew to the latter.

“That’s kind of surprising because El Nino usually results in warmer than normal (temperatures). I don’t put a lot of faith in those seasonal forecasts though,” he said. “I would put more faith in the signature you could get from El Nino than the seasonal weather forecasts, but there is some value to the seasonal weather forecasts.”

The warming is caused because the polar jet stream is pushed further north. The increase in temperature is seemingly slight – only one to two degrees warmer than normal – but can have an impact on snow levels – always an important issue in Revelstoke.

“It’s kind of difficult to say whether we’ll have more or less precipitation but, that being said, if the temperature is warmer in general by one or two degrees, the snow levels are usually a little higher,” said Lundquist.

A review of snowfall levels on the City of Revelstoke’s website, which goes up to 2004, shows a correlation between El Nino years and snow levels in town. The 2002-03 winter saw only 212 cm of snow, barely half the average winter snowfall of 398 cm. Likewise, the 1997-98 winter, which was characterized by a particularly strong El Nino, saw only 174 cm of snow.

However, those numbers are for snowfall and don’t include rain, so total precipitation is not known, and what falls as rain in town could likely be snow higher up.

Even then, Lundquist said it’s hard to predict what will happen with regards to snowfall.

“Sometimes it sends the jet stream farther north and we get less precipitation than normal. Sometimes it actually comes further down the province and we actually get more,” he said. “There’s no real signature between El Nino and whether or not the higher levels of the mountain, or even the medium elevations, get more or less snow.”

At the ski hill, Rod Kessler, Revelstoke Mountain Resort’s vice president and chief operating officer isn’t too worried about El Nino.

“The short view and a fun way to look at this business is we’re really farmers and snow’s our crop,” he said. “It’s precious and we manage every flake the best we can. And we have a very short season.”

“Whether it’s El Nino or La Nina at the end of the day you can’t miss a step. You have to have a really good operating plan and have to be flexible to deal with whatever comes your way, and that’s the way we’re set up.”

Either way, make sure you have your winter gear ready, because even in a warm winter Revelstoke tends gets lots and lots of snow.