Provincial health officer Dr. Perry Kendall is now predicting the H1N1 flu virus may ultimately kill only a small fraction of the 200 to 800 B.C. residents who die each year from seasonal flu.

"If we are where we think we are in this, I would think we would see under 50 deaths in B.C., which is way less than we would see with seasonal influenza," Kendall said Tuesday.

But unlike seasonal flu, which kills mainly the elderly, Kendall noted the largest number of deaths involve people in their 40s or 50s, some of them perfectly healthy.

He spoke Tuesday after statistics were released showing another three people have died in B.C. of H1N1 flu over the past week, two of them in the Fraser Health region, bringing the total number of B.C. deaths to 15 so far.

The two new swine flu deaths in Fraser were an adult man and adult woman, both with major underlying medical conditions.

The third new death was in the Vancouver Coastal health region, described as a patient closer to 20 years of age who suffered a sudden death that remains under investigation.

It's thought sudden deaths in young patients may be because H1N1, like other flu viruses, can sometimes attack the heart.

An additional 162 people were hospitalized with H1N1 flu over the past week, according to the B.C. Centre for Disease Control.

That's an 81 per cent jump in H1N1 hospitalizations from 199 a week ago, bringing the total severe B.C. cases requiring hospital stays to 361.

Seventy nine of the new hospitalizations in the past week were in Fraser Health, while 50 were in Vancouver Coastal, 17 were in the Interior and eight each were in the North or on Vancouver Island.

So far 28 per cent of the severe cases in B.C. involve patients with no underlying diseases or medical conditions. The rest – nearly three-quarters – had varying conditions, including asthma, lung disease, weakened immune systems, diabetes or chronic heart or kidney disease.

Twenty-five per cent of hospitalized cases have been admitted to ICU.

"As we've been expecting, we've seen an increase of cases, severe cases and, unfortunately, deaths," Kendall said.

He guessed 10 per cent of the B.C. population may now have been infected with H1N1.

He said it's likely the spread of the virus may peak in B.C. over the next week or two.

Most cases continue to be mild to moderate and most people will recover at home without treatment.

Delays in vaccine production mean many clinics will likely shut down next week as the supply dwindles, Kendall said.

A series of H1N1 vaccine clinics are underway this week, and Fraser Health dispensed nearly 600 doses at two clinics Monday in White Rock and Coquitlam.

More are underway at different sites through the week. (See www.fraserhealth.ca for info).

Fraser spokesperson Joan Marshall said people are being screened to try to ensure they're in high-priority risk groups and entitled to the vaccine, but said incidents of known queue-jumping have been minimal.

"People are to be commended for being patient and not attempting that that we know of."

Although many people not in the priority groups may not get the vaccine until into December, officials maintain they believe everyone who wants it will have the chance to get the shot by Christmas.

So far, Kendall said adverse reactions stemming from vaccination have been limited to an allergic reaction – involving hives, itching or anxiety – that have been treatable.

B.C. professional firefighters have been asked to be added to the high-priority groups for vaccinations, but Kendall said B.C. is following the national guidelines for vaccine priority and has no plans to alter course.

Unadjuvanted vaccine for pregnant women is to be available starting next week, mainly through doctors' offices.

Children under five began to receive the vaccine this week along with priority health care workers.

H1N1 is also spreading rapidly in pockets of northern B.C., including Kitimat, where all city schools have been closed to try to disrupt transmission.

A total of 48 new phone lines have been added over the past week to B.C.'s 811 Nurse Line, providing 142 lines now.

"People aren't necessarily getting right through, but they're getting a helpful message now instead of a dial tone," Kendall said.

About half of an additional 25 ventilators ordered by B.C. have now arrived.

H1N1 CASES IN B.C.

Fraser Health – 166 severe cases, including nine dead

Vancouver Coastal – 110 severe cases, including two dead

Interior Health – 48 severe cases, including three dead

Vancouver Island – 23 severe cases, including one dead

Northern Health – 14 severe cases

Source: BC-CDC; as of Nov. 2