Fish forecasts chopped
Sockeye counts have been discouraging so far this spawning season, raising fears that what was anticipated to be a healthy run could be low again.
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Updated: July 29, 2009 5:06 PM
The estimated number of sockeye salmon returning to the Fraser River has been chopped again, heightening fears for what was supposed to be a much healthier fishery this summer.
Fisheries officials now estimate about half of the early Stuart sockeye, the first run of the season, will return and the next run – the early summer sockeye – have been slashed by nearly two thirds.
There’s no solid estimate yet on the main summer sockeye run, which was to deliver the bulk of the estimated 10.6 million Fraser-bound sockeye this year.
But so far not enough of those sockeye are showing up to meet expectations.
“It’s very discouraging,” said Craig Orr, executive director of the Watershed Watch Salmon Society. “We were expecting some pretty good returns.”
Less than two million sockeye came back in each of the last two years.
Orr suspects poor ocean survival is a major factor, because of warmer temperatures and more scarce food sources.
“If the plankton’s not there, everything suffers – from salmon to birds to marine mammals,” he said.
Orr also believes returning sockeye aren’t doing well after they enter the river.
A brief opening over the weekend for aboriginal food fishing was quickly halted, said Sto:lo fisheries advisor Ernie Crey.
If the main summer run doesn’t show up in force soon, he said, all fishing is likely to be cancelled by the commercial fleet as well as the 94 native bands along the Fraser that depend on salmon for food.
“If they don’t show up, our communities are in trouble,” Crey said. “This year was supposed to be looking a lot brighter.”
There’s also concern about the science of fish counting.
Crey said the hydroacoustic echo sounder located near Mission was incorrectly counting pieces of floating wood as salmon for close to two weeks, possibly producing inaccurate early return counts.
The heat wave now hitting southern B.C. is also a worry.
Fraser River water temperatures are projected to climb to nearly 21 degrees Celsius by Aug. 1.
Anything over 20 degrees can cause high death rates in salmon returning to spawn.
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