In the future, wars will be fought over water.

It’s a bold prediction by a leading climatologist that leaves Kamloops between a dry rock and a dusty hard place.

According to David Phillips, a senior climatologist for Environment Canada and well-known author, Kamloopsians may want to get out their umbrellas — for their pina coladas.

Phillips told KTW there is no doubt the climate is changing in the region, and trending toward warmer temperatures.

Though the climatologist believes precipitation will increase in the future, it may not be enough to match the rise in temperature.

And that could pose a big problem for the River City.

“In other words, water will be even more of a premium in the future than it is now,” Phillips said.

“That, I think will be a major concern in your area.”

To avoid a drought scenario, he said it requires people to start conserving now, which means a future filled with water meters for residents.

It’s a controversial issue that’s no stranger to Kamloops.

Residents rejected universal water meters in a 2001 referendum.

This year, the city went searching for federal funding to set up universal meters, but so far have come up empty handed.

With a predicted worldwide shortage of water, Phillips said introducing water meters needs to be debated within the realm of climate change.

He said anything to conserve water is to the city’s advantage and meters

are a recognized way of paying upfront for something that will be a benefit later on.

Phillips predicts for the next few years, what people see out there window now is what they’re going to get — but it won’t to stay that way.

In 20, 40 or 60 years, it will be a completely different story.

But, to get a better understanding of where the weather is going, one has to look at the past.

Since 1950, the average temperature in the Southern Interior has gone up, but the number varies between seasons.

Winter has seen the biggest jump, climbing 2.7 degrees in 60 years, followed by spring at 1.5 degrees, summer at one degree and autumn nearly even at 0.4 degrees warmer.

Compare that with Toronto, which has warmed by a single degree in winter during the same time period.

“One of those regions where we have seen significant change, at least in the winter season . . . clearly the B.C. Souther Interior has warmed up over that period,” Phillips said.

Warming that took nearly 60 years to reach is now expected to take just 20 years, as the average temperature by winter 2030 will be about 2.7 degrees warmer.

By 2070, the River City could be become one hot tamale, with an average temperature somewhere between 3.5 and five degrees warmer than now.

It’s likely future winters in Kamloops will be shorter, while summers will last longer — and temperatures will be more intense.

Right now, the city can take pride as one of the hottest places to live in Canada.

A hot day in the country is considered 30 C. Kamloops boasts the most days in an average year above that marker with 29.

By 2040, the number is expected to double.

Good for golfing, perhaps, but Phillips cautioned the notion Kamloops will become the Phoenix of the north is “exaggerated,” noting there will still be ice and snow.

On average, the city gets 75 centimetres of snow during a typical winter season.

The number is expected to decline, but it won’t drop to zero — instead, the white stuff may fall as rain.

Phillips does see some positives.

Kamloops remains one of the safest places to live in Canada when it comes to extreme weather like tornadoes, hurricanes or floods — and it’s not expected to change anytime soon.

Another advantage Phillips sees Kamloops as having in a warmer world is the region is used to hot weather and has learned to adapt.

The climatologist believes cities will need to adapt even more and plan future communities around the change in climate — not just for three or four years ahead, but for a century.

It’s a notion picking up steam at city hall.

Last year, the city struck the sustainability committee, a group made up of city officials and a handful of regular citizens tasked with creating a document to address future planning issues, including the environment.

That means dealing with climate change, energy, air, water and land and waste issues.

City environmental services supervisor Glen Farrow has been working on the sustainability plan and called it a “huge undertaking,” noting it’s the biggest planning project the city’s endeavored.

“The purpose of the sustainability plan is to look at future issues and future city planning . . . up until 2050,” he said.

So far, the city has signed on to the provincial Climate Action Charter and is legislated to reduce corporate greenhouse gases 30 per cent by the year 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050.

Farrow acknowledged the plan is still in its infancy and he’s not sure what it will contain to address climate change years from now, but he suggested the issue will be a key component of a completed plan.

The group will tackle the climate-change portion of the plan early next year.

As for water meters, Farrow said it’s something city officials have been pushing for 15 years.

While he agrees meters are inevitable, he said it’s not so much a lack of water that’s the problem but rather the cost to treat and pump it throughout the city.

Whether Kamloops will be ready for climate change or not, Phillips said people need to accept the climate is changing and, to a certain degree, humans are part of the problem.

He maintained change will produce winners and losers, no matter where Kamloops ends up.

Phillips refuses to buy into the doom-and-gloom scenarios being predicted by some.

He said people shouldn’t fear the change, arguing that attitude typically invites inaction.

Instead, he believes society should learn to adapt, respect and recognize the changes on the horizon.

“Every community will be touched by climate change. The more we do to prepare for it, the better off we’ll be.”